HW Media Economic Summit: What's the Market Vibe?

Cautious optimism, interest rates, and why a market slowdown might actually be a good thing.

This one’s officially on my "tune in and listen" list. I’m not an economist, but I have a deep interest in the economy, so I pay close attention to these things.

I'll be writing up more takeaways in the coming days and weeks—there was a TON of information to process. But for now, I thought I’d share the vibes.

The Energy at the Summit

The first thing that struck me? The optimism.

Now, I get it, real estate agents are among the most optimistic people on the planet. They have to be. They wake up every day with no idea where their next paycheck is coming from, but they know those bills will keep rolling in. Not everyone is built for that, and if you choose that life, you better be an optimist.

But this wasn’t just agents. More than 50% of the attendees were C-level executives from banks and real estate firms. People who get paid to worry. And yet, the vibe was somewhere between cautious optimism and outright optimism.

If I had to sum it up: we’re at the bottom. We’ve been here for a while. The economy is slowing down, and the real estate market is waiting for somewhere between a 0.5 and 1.0 percentage point drop in interest rates to unlock. Considering we’ve already seen a nearly 0.5-point move in the last few weeks, it’s starting to feel achievable. Could be regency bias… but it could also be true.

Key Takeaways:

1. Home Value Growth is Slowing, That’s a Good Thing.

   I know that may sound weird, but so much of the country has seen explosive home price growth. And just like a tree that grows too fast without developing strong roots, that kind of unchecked acceleration can lead to a crash at the first big storm. A little slowdown? That’s healthy.

   
   

2. Washington Finally Cares About the 10-Year Treasury

   For the first time in a long time, we’ve got Washington paying attention to the 10-year Treasury note. Why does that matter? Because the 10-year and 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to move together. I’ll do a deep dive on why that is at some point, but for now, just trust me, this is good for interest rates.

   
   

3. The Key Indicator? Jobless Claims

   As Logan Mohtashami says: Labor over inflation. The Fed talks about inflation, but their actions show they’re actually more concerned with the labor market. They can’t exactly go on camera and say, “We need more people to lose their jobs before we act,” but… that’s basically the subtext.

   
   

4. Delinquent Mortgages: Yes, They’re Up. No, It's Not 2008.

   There have been headlines about rising mortgage delinquencies. And yes, delinquencies are up.

   But let’s put that in context: they’re still below 2019 levels. And I don’t recall anyone freaking out about an “impending foreclosure crisis” back then, because there wasn’t one. We went from nearly zero delinquencies (thanks to foreclosure moratoriums) to a slow return to normal. So let’s keep it all in perspective.

   
   

More To Come…

That’s the quick-and-dirty version. The event was packed with charts, data, and sharp insights from economists. I’ve got a few of those graphs coming your way soon, each one tells an interesting story. Stay tuned.